NHL Betting: Stars vs Flames First Round Game 5 – 05/11/2022

The Calgary Flames got the offensive outburst it needed, taking Game 4 to even up the series. Things head back to Calgary for Game 5, and this betting guide will offer some help in navigating the best bets for Wednesday’s contest.

Dallas Stars (+180) vs Calgary Flames (-225)

Series tied at 2-2

The Flames have amassed 95 shots on goal in the last two games, but they only won one of those contests. Stars goaltender Jake Oettinger has arguably been the best player in the series, but Calgary’s onslaught is getting to be overwhelming. After getting the much-needed win in Game 4, the Flames look like they’re ready to take charge of the series.

Elias Lindholm Calgary Flames
Elias Lindholm, Calgary Flames (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)

Calgary looks like the pick with Game 5 moving back to the Flames’ home rink, but the low value in their moneyline (-225) isn’t worth the trouble. Calgary looks like the play in this one, and the puck line (-1.5, +125) is a little more inviting. Because of how close this series has been, however, taking the puck line might be banking on an empty-netter. It still has the most value of any line in the contest.

Props: Third-Period Goals (Over 2, +100)

Only 14 goals have been scored in the four games this series, but half of those have been scored in the third period. The only game that hasn’t had at least one goal in the third period was Game 1, which the Flames won 1-0. The offense opened up a bit when the series moved to Dallas, with 11 goals being scored in the last two games. Six of those goals were scored in the third period.

Based on how close this series has been through the first four games, any third-period lead should lead to a great chance for an empty-netter. That scenario would get half of this total, and there has been an empty-netter in each of the last three games. Entering a critical Game 5, teams will have to take chances late, and that’s why getting even money on this prop is a great value play for Wednesday.

Over/Under: Under 5.5 (-130)

Oettinger and Flames goalie Jacob Markstrom have controlled the series, and only three goals were scored in the first two games in Calgary, combined. The odds have been tilted toward the under all series, and three of the four games have landed under 5.5 goals, with Game 3 being the only outlier.

Jake Oettinger Dallas Stars
Jake Oettinger, Dallas Stars (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)

The Stars are teetering on trouble if they keep giving up all those shots. The question on betting the total comes down to how long Oettinger can keep up with Calgary’s assault. The young netminder looks unflappable, even if he’s lost a couple of games. Markstrom has been great, as well, which means sticking with betting the under (U5.5, -130) is the best play until these goaltenders show us otherwise.

Odds via Yahoo and BetMGM

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