NHL Betting: Flames vs Stars First Round Game 4 – 05/09/2022

The offense finally arrived in this series, but many people are waiting for the Calgary Flames to show up, too. Dallas took a 2-1 lead in the series and can really take charge with another win at home. This betting guide will give analysis of the top plays for Monday’s Game 4.

Calgary Flames (-155) vs Dallas Stars (+125)

Series: Dallas leads 2-1

The Dallas Stars have taken the lead in this series behind some rock-solid goaltending and sheer grit. Nothing has come easy for either team since Elias Lindholm scored the first goal of the series back in Game 1. Despite playing in Dallas and dropping Games 2 and 3, Calgary is still favored to win Game 4. This game looks like a toss-up, but the number is pretty heavy on Calgary’s end.

Jake Oettinger Dallas Stars
Jake Oettinger, Dallas Stars (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)

The Stars have got a lot going for them, as their four goals in Game 3 are more than the Flames have managed all series. The value on the moneyline is with Dallas (+125). The home-ice advantage is big for the Stars. They won 27 games at home during the regular season and scored 27 more goals at home than they did on the road. Lean toward Dallas to take a commanding lead in the series.

Over/Under: Over 5.5 (+100)

This number is a tough one since two of the games were easily under the total. But Game 3 was a different animal from the first two contests. The play was a little more wide open, and even though both goaltenders remained sharp, there were still six goals scored. This game should be tight once again, leaving the opportunity for an empty-netter if someone leads late. That’s a big deal when the number’s below six goals, as Game 3’s empty-netter proved.

With Calgary needing a win to keep their season from the brink, they should be playing with a little more tempo. Dallas looks to have found a bit of a groove, and if the Flames step things up, there could be some goals scored here. This game is going to be tight, as the whole series has been. The total should be right around the number, so the value is playing the over (O5.5, +100).

Prop Bet: Both Teams to Score in First Period (+210)

Twice as many goals were scored in Game 3 as were scored in the first two games of this series combined. Calgary entered this series as heavy favorites but is now staring at what essentially is a must-win situation as a Dallas victory puts the Stars one win away from advancing. Urgency will force Calgary’s hand here a bit, and that means opening things up a little more from the start.

Mikael Backlund Calgary Flames
Mikael Backlund, Calgary Flames (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)

Dallas certainly looked more comfortable and focused on home ice in Game 3. The Stars had to come from behind to win Game 3, so Calgary is right on the edge. The Flames have first-period goals in two of the three games, and so do the Stars. The pace should be fast at puck drop, and getting better than 2-to-1 odds for both teams to light the lamp in the first period (+210) is a good play.

Odds via FanDuel and BetMGM

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