There are some great matchups going on in the National League on Thursday. Two of those matchups have the San Diego Padres wrapping up their four-game series with the Chicago Cubs and the Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets closing out their series. This betting guide will offer some of the best value plays for both of those matchups.
San Diego Padres (-165) vs Chicago Cubs (+140)
Joe Musgrove is getting the start for the Padres, and he’s been one of the best pitchers in the league this season. He’s 7-0 across his 11 starts this season, with a sparkling 1.50 ERA. He’s also been great against the Cubs throughout his career, posting an ERA of 1.97 with 48 strikeouts in 45.2 innings pitched. He might be too much for Chicago to overcome, so take the Padres (-165) in this one.
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The Padres blanked the opposition in both of Musgrove’s last two starts, but the over still hit in those games thanks to San Diego’s bats. He’s allowed just one run in his last 20 innings pitched, and Chicago has scored three runs or less in five of its last seven games. The under has also hit in 12 of the last 17 meetings between these teams. Take the under (U9.5, -105) here again.
Milwaukee Brewers (+115) vs New York Mets (-135)
The Brewers had lost nine of their previous 10 games before smoking the Mets on Wednesday to make Craig Counsell the winningest manager in Brewers history. They’ve split the first two games of the three-game set entering Thursday’s finale. New York starter Tylor Megill had a brutal start in his last outing, but he’s a much better pitcher at home where he has a 3.86 ERA with 18 strikeouts in 16.1 innings. Brewers starter Aaron Ashby has been struggling lately, with a 5.94 ERA in his last three starts. Take the Mets (-135) to close out this series with a win.
Both of these starters have been a little erratic lately, and both bullpens have also been sketchy. Both starters average fewer than five innings per start, meaning more risk from the bullpens. This number seems a little low, as Milwaukee has gone over in six of their last nine, and the Mets have gone over in five of their last eight. It looks like there could be some runs scored in this one, so lean towards the over (O8, -105).
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
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