With a full slate of Major League games on Friday, there’s a lot of interesting National League action happening. The Milwaukee Brewers look to bounce back against the Pittsburgh Pirates, and the Arizona Diamondbacks take on the Colorado Rockies. This betting guide will offer some of the best value plays from that pair of games based on recent trends.
Milwaukee Brewers (-200) vs Pittsburgh Pirates (+165)
The Pirates beat the Brewers yesterday, marking the first win in the season series for Pittsburgh this season. Milwaukee won the first six meetings between the teams – clearing the run line in all six of those victories. Brewers starter Corbin Burnes has been great this season, but even better on the road with a 1.64 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP (walks+hits per inning pitched) away from American Family Field. This looks like a good spot to take the Milwaukee run line (-1.5, -115) against Pittsburgh again.
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For as good as Burnes has been, Pirates starter Roasny Contreras has been just as sharp. He has a 3.14 ERA in his last three but boasts a 0.48 ERA across 18.2 innings pitched at home. However, the over is 7-0-1 in Milwaukee’s last eight overall, and s 20-8-3 in the last 31 contests between these teams in Pittsburgh. These teams combined for 15 runs yesterday, so lean towards the over (O7.5, -115).
Arizona Diamondbacks (+100) vs Colorado Rockies (-120)
These teams have had a season to forget, as they’re battling for last in the National League West. However, the first three games between these teams were very close, with the Diamondbacks taking two of three. Arizona starter Merrill Kelly was a huge factor in one of those wins, allowing one and striking out eight in 8.2 innings pitched in a 4-1 D’Backs victory on May 6. Colorado starter Antonio Senzatela has been erratic, so take Kelly and the Diamondbacks here (+100).
The total has gone over just once in Kelly’s last six starts, as well as each of Senzatela’s last four. The under has also gone 3-0-1 in the last four meetings against these teams. There’s always a threat for big run totals in Colorado, but this doesn’t seem like one of these spots. Senzatela’s been better at home, with a 3.52 ERA compared to 6.86 away from Coors Field. Take the under in this one (U11.5, -115).
Odds via BetMGM
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