NHL Betting: Stars vs Flames First Round Game 7 – 05/15/2022

Few picked this series to go seven games, but the Dallas Stars have ridden some great goaltending to get to this point. The Calgary Flames won the Pacific Division this season, and dropping out in the first round would be a major disappointment. This betting guide delivers some of the best value plays for the final game of this tight first-round series.

Dallas Stars (+155) vs Calgary Flames (-190)

Since getting shut out in Game 2, the Flames have turned up their offense. Calgary has racked up 165 shots in those four games but has managed just two wins. Dallas goaltender Jake Oettinger finally got some offensive support in Game 6, as the Stars led the whole way in a 4-2 win. Yet the Flames are a different team at home.

Jacob Markstrom Chris Tanev Calgary Flames Marian Studenic Dallas Stars
Jacob Markstrom and Chris Tanev of the Calgary Flames keep an eye on the puck while Marian Studenic of the Dallas Stars looks on (Photo by Brett Holmes/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

In the three home games so far, Calgary is outshooting Dallas 87-60. The home-ice edge is a big deal here. The Stars managed to win Game 2 in Calgary and are coming off an emotional home win in Game 6, but this looks like Calgary’s series to lose. The money line for the Flames (-190) doesn’t have much value, especially for a Game 7. Considering that every game since Game 1 has been decided by more than one goal, the best play is Calgary’s puck line (-1.5, +140)

Over/Under: Under 5.5, -135

From the first game of this series—a razor-thin 1-0 win for the Flames—offense has been tough to come by. Only three games have seen teams hit three goals or more, and all of them hit that mark because of an empty-netter. The goaltenders have also combined to make 28 or more saves eight times in this series.

That points to sharp netminding and some great defense. Four of the six games in this series have gone under 5.5 goals. Game 7s tend to be lower scoring, and the referees also tend to swallow their whistles a bit more, too. With as tight as this series has been through the first six games, the trend points toward the under again (U5.5, -135).

Prop Bet: Under 1.5 Goals in the First Period (-145)

Through the first six games of this series, only Game 3 had more than one goal. Each team scored a goal in that game, which was one of the two games to go over 5.5 goals. This series has been ridiculously tight, and the starts have been especially close. Elias Lindholm’s first-period goal was the only score of Game 1, and Games 4 and 5 didn’t see the first goal until the second period.

Elias Lindholm Calgary Flames
Elias Lindholm, Calgary Flames (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)

With the high stakes of a Game 7, don’t expect things to all of a sudden open up. Dallas’ game is to muck things up, and they’ve slowed down a pretty volatile offensive team in the Flames for the better part of six games. Expect another tight start, and there’s decent value in betting that there are fewer than two goals in the first period (-145).

Odds via BetMGM

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